four conflict game

This is a review of a game played on secrethitler.io, of which I was not a participant.  It was played by fairly high level secret hitler players, and makes for a good deductive experience.

Reminder of the format I use for my notes:
1-2 (6,7) RRB RB B
This would mean 1 is president, 2 is chancellor, 6-7 votes against the majority, the president claimed RRB, the chancellor claimed RB, and a blue policy was passed.
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1-5 RRB RR R

First hand confs.  Normally, I'd assume either 1 is hitler who blind confs when they get RRR, or a fascist wants to bring 3-7 into the game on the third hand.

2-6 RRB RB B
3-7 (1) RRB RB B

Since seat 1 knows that he isn't hitler, he assumes that 5 wants to bring 3-7 into the game, and would prefer seat 4 as an off meta play.  This is the first vote deviation.

4-6
5-1
6-2 RRB RR R

A second conf.  This means there is a max of one fascist in 3-4-7.

6 inv 4 fascist

A third conf!  This is a good time to take stock of what some players think the lines could be.
for 6, the lines must be 2-4-1/5, which means 3/7 are confirmed liberals, from their perspective.

7-3 RRB RB B

After 5 played hands, the count is 5 blues, which suggests on aggregate, all blues were claimed.

1-5
2-4 (1,2,4)

I don't understand how 1 could vote for 2-4, other than to say the lines of 2-4-5 at this point is too constraining.  They aren't in the hitler zone, so it could be an anti double dip play.

3-5 (1,4) RRB RR R

And there is the fourth conf!  Here are the lines from each players liberal perspective:

1: 5,2,4
5,6,x
2: 1,3,6
5,6,x
3: 5,2,4
5,6,x
4: 6,1,3
5,6,x
5: 1,3,6
6: 2,4,5
7: 1,3,6
2,4,5
5,6,x

5 and 6 are constrained to one line each, while everyone else has one hard line plus the 5-6-x line.  7 is the only player with two hard lines and one soft line.  At this point, all players would seem to agree that 5-6-7 is a low probability scenario, and 7 is the SE.

3 SE 7
7-6 (2,4,5) RRR RR R

Since the most flexible lines are 5-6-x, it may have made more sense to pick in 1-2-3-4.  The qualifier is that Hitler is most certainly in 1-2-3-4.  But at this point, we can say that 6 is confirmed not Hitler.

7 shoots 4

I guess 7 says 6 could only be regular fascist, which is a 2/6 chance (2 regular fascists out of the remaining 3 liberals and Hitler).  So 6 is slightly more believable.  However, if 6 is liberal, than 5 is fascist, and should always be the shot.  If 6 is fascist, 5 could still be fascist.  So the decision to shoot 4 was a pretty serious mistake.

5-1
6-3
7-3 (1,3,7)

2,5,6 all neined the government.  So a government with 7-3 fails to get 6's vote, who's only line can be 2-4-5.  That confirms that 6 is fascist.  It also means the only lines with 4 as fasc are 4-5-6. so its almost assuredly 3v3, with the lines exactly 2-5-6 based on the votes.  This also means that 3 is not Hitler, and 7 is not fascist, in which case 6 would have jaed.  The new possible lines are as follows:

1: 5,6,x
2: 1,3,6
5,6,x
3: 5,6,x
4: 1,3,6
5,6,x
5: 1,3,6
6: F
7: 1,3,6
5,6,x

6 fascist, 3 not hitler, 7 liberal.

5-1
6-3
7-3 (1,3,7)
1-7 (1,7)
2-6 (2,6)
3-7 (1,7)
TD R
5-2 (2,5,6)
6-7 (6)
7-3 (7)
TD R

Fascists Win